Monday, March 12, 2018

Trade Wars 2018

     This is March, 2018, and the economy is at odds with the beginning of the Trade Wars.

     Trade war is a conflict between two or more nations regarding trade tariffs on each other. This type of conflict usually arises because the nations involved are trying to improve imports or exports for its own country. Trade wars have the potential of increasing the costs of certain imports if the nations involved refuse to make a compromise.

     There are some oppositions taking place, currently, with the trade tariffs imposed by President Trump.  There are differences in political view points between USA and China.  President Trump seeks to resolve the unfair trade policies involving China.  Currently, the benefits aren't mutual. There is a deep trade deficit.  Trade involves goods, services, and information.   375-400 billion is the current estimated USA China trade deficit, including goods only (https://www.thebalance.com).  Products brought into the country, by far, out weight the products being sold to China.  President Trump simply wants to solve the imbalances between exports and imports.

     USA major exports to China include:

Soybeans,大豆: $15 billion

Civilian aircraft,民用飞机: $8.4 billion

Cotton,棉:  $3.4 billion

Copper materials,铜:  $3 billion

Passenger vehicles (small engines),乘用车:  $3 billion

Aluminum materials,铝:  $2.4 billion

Passenger vehicles (large engines),大型发动机:  $2.2 billion

Electronic integrated circuits,电子集成电:  $1.7 billion

Corn,玉米:  $1.3 billion

Coal,煤炭:. $1.2 billion

     China major imports into USA include:

Electronic equipment,电子设备:  US $431.6 billion 

Electrical machinery, equipment,电机,设备 :  US $414.3 billion

Mineral fuels including oil,矿物燃料:  $175.8 billion 

Machinery including computers,机器包括电脑:  $147.8 billion 

Ores, slag, ash, 矿石,矿渣,灰:  $93.2 billion

Optical, technical, medical apparatus,光学,技术,医疗器械: $92.6 billion

Vehicles,汽车: $71.5 billion

Plastics, plastic articles,塑料,塑料制品: $61 billion

Organic chemicals,有机化学品:  $43.9 billion

Oilseeds,油籽:  $38.3 billion

     This trade war began  with President Trump imposing a 25% tariff on imports of steel and 10% tariff on imports of aluminum.

     There is an attached national security angle.  The angle is that there are section 232 investigations which have an immediate affect on national security imports.  This is under the authority of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended.  Any interested party has the authority to initiate the investigation, and maybe self initiated by the Secretary of Commerce.

     Opposition to compromise.  

     Unnecessary tariffs impose an advantage tipped in favor of the competition. Tariffs, for example, could potentially close small mom-and-pop businesses that only rely on imported steel in order to keep their company running.  Specialized are isn't available domestically.

     The top five or six sources of our imports of steel are Canada, Germany, and Turkey, which are in NATO; Japan and South Korea, with whom we have a military alliance; and Mexico. 

     On Thursday, March 8, 2018, President Donald Trump signed two proclamations levying tariffs on aluminum and steel imports. Mexico and Canada are exempted (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/trump-signs-tariffs-that-exempt-canada-and-mexico-open-door-to-others.html).